According to a comprehensive new study by World Data Lab (WDL) and EBANX, a global technology company specializing in payment services for emerging markets, people aged 45 and over will account for 51% of the increase in annual online spending in these regions through 2036. This cohort will inject a staggering USD 4.4 trillion into digital commerce, establishing themselves as the new engine of economic growth.
The study highlights that the pace of adoption is currently fastest among consumers aged 65 and over, whose online spending is projected to rise at an annual rate of 12.2%—the highest growth rate of any age group. This demographic shift will also be felt deeply in digital categories historically associated with younger audiences. By 2036, consumers between the ages of 45 and 64 will spend USD 318 billion on gaming, streaming, and social media, representing nearly 25% more spending in these categories than their younger counterparts aged 15 to 29.
"Over the next ten years, people aged 45 and over will add USD 4.4 trillion in online spending in emerging markets, half of all the growth," explained Wolfgang Fengler, CEO of World Data Lab. "Some of them already shop on their phones and will keep doing so as they get older. Others will buy online for the first time in their fifties or sixties. Merchants who build their checkout only for a 25-year-old will miss both groups."
The research underscores this trend by projecting that the majority of new online buyers in emerging markets through 2036—defined as adults who utilize mobile phones to shop on the internet—will be over the age of 45. Specifically, this includes 223 million new digital consumers between 45 and 64, and another 170 million aged 65 or older.
Despite this powerful demographic evolution toward older populations, younger consumers will remain a vital pillar of e-commerce, particularly in regions where populations remain heavily skewed toward youth, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. Across the broader landscape of emerging markets, 221 million people between the ages of 15 and 29 are expected to make their very first purchases on digital channels within the next decade. Online spending within this age cohort will increase by USD 1.9 trillion, representing a robust annual growth rate of 8.7%, which ranks second only to the 12.2% growth rate anticipated for consumers aged 65 and older.
A primary driver behind this broad-based economic momentum across multiple age groups is the continued expansion of the global middle class. The data indicates that the middle class is set to gain 930 million adults by 2036, ultimately reaching a milestone total of 3.8 billion people worldwide. Two-thirds of these new entrants will join the middle class as their daily spending surpasses the USD 13-a-day threshold commonly used as an international benchmark, while the remainder will be added through natural population growth. Over the exact same period, this crucial income bracket is expected to contract by 37 million people in developed markets, highlighting a historic geographic pivot in household prosperity.
"A difference of almost a billion consumers in a single decade reveals a clear shift in the center of gravity of global consumption and cross-border business, which is moving toward the countries where most of the world’s population lives," said Marie-Elise Droga, Chief Revenue Officer at EBANX.
Overall, emerging markets are projected to account for six out of every ten new dollars spent online globally over the next decade. The WDL and EBANX study reveals that annual online spending in these regions will more than double, surging from USD 7.1 trillion today to USD 15.8 trillion in 2036. This represents an astonishing additional USD 8.7 trillion injected directly into the global digital economy. China and India will anchor this massive expansion, leading with projected increases of USD 4.7 trillion and USD 1.3 trillion, respectively, followed closely by Brazil at USD 249 billion, Indonesia at USD 243 billion, and Mexico at USD 191 billion.
Growth decoupled from the credit card
Unlike e-commerce ecosystems in many developed economies, where the traditional credit card serves as the undisputed backbone of online transactions, digital commerce in emerging markets is increasingly operating independently of these legacy financial rails. The joint study by WDL and EBANX projects that online spending by adults without a credit card in emerging economies will expand by 130% over the next decade, climbing from USD 3.3 trillion today to USD 7.6 trillion in 2036.
"This is closely tied to the innovation that came out of the financial industry in emerging markets, which developed solutions for an increasingly mobile economy and for the habits of local consumers," said Estelita Hass, Head of Market Intelligence at EBANX. "Today, we call them local payment methods, or LPMs, and they allowed e-commerce growth to decouple from the credit card, which still has very low penetration in these countries."
According to the findings, only 20% of adults residing in emerging markets will hold credit cards by 2036, falling far short of the 66% penetration rate projected for developed economies over the same timeframe. Consequently, two out of every three newcomers—or 67%—entering the e-commerce landscape in these regions will arrive without a credit card. For these consumers, the digital gateways to the internet economy are local payment methods, which encompass mobile money, digital wallets, locally issued debit cards, and instant account-to-account rails such as Pix in Brazil, UPI in India, and Bre-B in Colombia.
"If your checkout only takes credit cards, you are competing for one in five adults in emerging markets and conceding the other four," noted Marie-Elise Droga. "The merchants growing fastest with us didn’t wait for cards to arrive: they added the payment rails their customers already use, and they’re taking new buyers, bigger baskets, and recurring revenue that card-only competitors can’t even see."
What this means for global merchants
A consumer base that is simultaneously older, larger, more affluent, and increasingly accustomed to paying via digital means generates surging demand across every major digital vertical in emerging markets. While retail leads the broader expansion through 2036—with online spending set to rise by USD 4.3 trillion—every other digital sector is poised for substantial growth.
Video gaming stands out with the fastest projected pace of expansion at 14.2% annually, representing an additional USD 352 billion in sales. This is followed by social media at 9.7% annual growth yielding USD 202 billion, Software as a Service (SaaS) at 9.6% generating USD 459 billion, the travel sector at 8.1% adding USD 1.2 trillion, and digital streaming services growing at 8% to account for an additional USD 194 billion.
Across all of these diverse verticals, consumers operating without credit cards account for more than half of all online spending in emerging markets. Furthermore, significant untapped potential remains within these populations, as at least 957 million people across these developing regions already engage in digital financial transactions of various kinds but have yet to make their first purchase over the internet.
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